In 2022, we tracked a gradual return to pre-pandemic levels in cargo crime, where criminals targeted basic goods, including food & beverage items and high-valued goods, like electronics. This also refers to cargo thieves increasingly stealing goods from facilities and declining instances of truck hijackings. This is in large part due to the gradual decline in global demand for goods returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. As demand eases, so does the volume of trade. However, this reduced demand coupled with alleviated port congestion is not leading to a drop off in cargo crime. Rather, it is leading to shifts in which goods are targeted, how they are stolen, and how criminal organizations are infiltrating the supply chain and stealing or tampering with these commodities. In this report, BSI and NMU collectively assessed cargo crime in 2022 compared to previous years and identified essential mitigation advice that companies can implement to prepare for the current trends and emerging risks of 2023.

• Theft from facility down by 3%
• Hijacking down by 11%
• Theft from container / trailer up by 6%
• Theft of vehicles up by 2%
• Theft from vehicle down by 2%
• Theft using other methods, as a collective, including theft of employee belongings, up by 7%

Comparison against top commodities stolen in 2021

• Food and beverage 0% difference
• Electronics up by 2%
• Agriculture down by 4%
• Automotive up by 3%
• Fuel up by 2%
• Construction materials up by 1%
• Metal up by 2%
• Other products stolen, as a collective, including pharmaceuticals, down by 6%

In 2021, the world was figuring out how to balance COVID-19 restrictions and policies associated with reopening economies. Whereas in 2022, particularly in the second half of 2022, we tracked a change in consumer demand, the global economy, and subsequently, criminal behavior. Thieves adopted new methods and tactics to acclimate to the evolving technological, economic, and social environments. In 2022, as the volume of goods moving slowed down and port congestion eased, we noted upticks in both thefts from facilities and from containers/trailers juxtaposed with a global drop off in hijackings. As the delays that characterized supply chains in 2021 and early 2022 eased, so did the thefts involving idle cargo occurring at unsecured parking lots or container yards near port facilities.

This global trend is best understood in the light of the impact of supply and demand on the flow of goods, and the subsequent shift in cargo crime patterns. For example, in 2021, cargo crime was characterized predominantly by port congestion. This congestion led to cargo at rest, and subsequently, upticks in criminals targeting goods at unsecured lots, parking spots, and container yards outside of ports. This global port congestion eased in H2 2022. As the volume of trade reduces as do the supply chain disruptions that characterized 2020 and 2021. While this isn’t leading to a drop-off in cargo theft and smuggling, it is leading to a change in crime patterns. For example, in 2022, globally, top theft types include thefts from facilities, hijackings, thefts from containers/trailers, thefts of vehicles, and thefts from vehicles. Meanwhile in 2021, the top theft type was hijackings, followed by thefts from facilities, and thefts from containers/trailers. In 2022, there was a significant drop-off in recorded incidents of hijackings globally. In South America, for example, BSI tracked a 27 percent decline in hijacking from 2021 to 2022, with a spike in facility and container thefts during this same period. This is partly due to cargo stoppages and evolving regional theft patterns as a result of labor strikes and social unrest. In Ecuador, for example, the Port of Guayaquil accumulated 300 cargo containers per day during an 18-day incident that severely impacted cargo transportation. While hijackings continue to be the top theft type, the decline marks the impact of regional issues, like social unrest, on cargo theft patterns, like hijacking rates.

Other emerging global cargo theft trends include the uptick in thefts of basic goods, like fuel and food. In 2022, the top products stolen globally included food and beverage, electronics, agriculture goods, automotive products, fuel, and construction materials. While food and beverage was the top product stolen in 2020 and 2021, from 2021 to 2022, it increased from 14 percent of recorded incidents to 16 percent of recorded incidents, globally. This is in part due to inflation reaching its highest level in decades for many advanced economies, but it is also likely influenced by significant weather events and rising energy costs triggering global product shortages and spikes in prices for certain goods. In Europe, similar to trends observed globally, rising food and beverage prices made these products more attractive to thieves in 2022. Food and beverage thefts increased significantly between 2021 and 2022, accounting for 11.8 percent of total thefts in 2021 and 14.8 percent of thefts in 2022. This represents nearly a 25 percent increase in the number of recorded food and beverage thefts year over year.

While actual inflation has eased in countries like the United States, the cost of living remains relatively high and the loss of purchasing power for basic goods is relatively significant. For this reason, and other factors like product shortages curtailing the production of new vehicles, crude oil inventories remaining low, and natural disasters leading to increased food prices, we will likely continue to track a large number of thefts of food and beverage products, automotives and truck parts, fuel, agricultural goods, and electronics.

Similar to previous years, thieves are leveraging technology and fraudulent practices to target specific types of goods. For instance, in Europe, fictitious pickups are generally, not common, typically accounting for less than two percent of total thefts. However, when these types of thefts do occur, they can cause significant product losses. In one case in Germany, a bicycle company unknowingly commissioned a phantom logistics operator to transport their goods. Initially, the phantom company carried out several orders without committing any thefts. However, upon receiving an order to transport four truckloads of high-quality bicycles worth more than $1.7 million USD, the company stole the entire order.  Along a similar vein, but regarding supply chain corruption in general, approximately 21 percent of all theft incidents recorded globally involved some form of insider participation, excluding incidents where the involvement was unknown. However, this oscillates by region. In Europe, 26 percent of cargo theft incidents involved some form of insider participation in 2022. In Asia, thefts involving some form of insider participation accounted for roughly 31 percent of recorded incidents in 2022. Meanwhile, in Latin America, the top countries of concern for insider theft in 2022 included Brazil, by a large margin, accounting for 65 percent of recorded incidents involving insider participation, and Argentina, which constituted roughly 21 percent of incidents.

Looking ahead in 2023 and its ever-changing risk environment, multiple factors, including the effects of a global economic downturn, rising cost of living, rising transport costs to transport goods, social unrest, natural disasters, and black swan events, will have compounding impacts on global supply chains. This will likely result in an environment that is potentially more conducive to threats such as insider participation in 2023.

As we look ahead to 2023, organizations should maintain awareness of the evolving security landscape. There are multiple lenses to see these profiles of security risk through, however for brevity, we’ve limited it to technology, economy, and regulation.

Parallel to these technological and macroeconomic changes, is an uptick in regulations and compliance. We are tracking this with the global movement of corporate behavior towards green legislation, reporting mechanisms, and social compliance initiatives. In general, the obligations of companies in relation to sustainability are increasing. Take for instance, the fact that numerous countries now mandate climate disclosures for certain companies, and in some cases, supply chain auditing to assess the presence of forced labor. In the future, as the world works towards decarbonization and greater supply chain transparency, these obligations are likely to increase.

With the convergence of these multifaceted risks, we can see that the supply chain is vulnerable. This vulnerability spans from technology to the economy, as cyber-attacks exploit an already stressed supply chain and cargo thieves adapt to what’s in high demand and short supply. So, the risk has not changed. Rather, the nature and sophistication of the attacks have changed, and with that a company’s vulnerabilities. This gradual shift in risk topography generates a simultaneous shift in vulnerability topography. Meaning, as risk becomes more agile, so does the vulnerability to it and your company’s approaches to prevent and tackle it.

Looking ahead, organisations can approach this ever-evolving landscape by investing in reassessing your risk exposure to these vulnerabilities.

Our partnership with BSI gives all NMU policyholders the opportunity to access professional risk management services to assist with implementing a supply chain security management strategy and compliance with the emerging demand for environmental, social and governance in corporate sustainability.

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© 2023 The British Standards Institution / NMU. All rights reserved.

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